Baulking at shipping sanctions, Greece balances Ukraine aid, fear of Russia

What Happened

Greece is resisting the European Commission's proposed 21st package of sanctions against Russia, which would ban EU shipping companies from carrying Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to third parties. Greek officials argue that as the owner of 60 percent of the EU fleet, its shipping industry would be disproportionately harmed. The objection comes amid broader Greek efforts to assist Ukraine while managing fears of Russian retaliation. In May, a Ukrainian naval drone laden with explosives was discovered on the island of Lefkada, prompting an apology from Ukraine and a promise to be more careful. Subsequently, Greek Deputy Foreign Minister Haris Theoharis signed a memorandum on Ukraine's reconstruction, and the sides are moving toward an intergovernmental agreement. Greek companies are undertaking at least four infrastructure projects in Ukraine. Greece has also used its port of Alexandroupolis to funnel US weapons to Ukraine and began supplying LNG after Russia bombed Ukrainian gas infrastructure. Despite a November 2025 joint declaration between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to deepen defence cooperation, including on maritime drones, no progress has been reported. Greece admits it is assessing how such a deal would affect its relations with Russia and whether it could trigger Russian hybrid warfare or misinformation campaigns ahead of a general election by early 2027.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The standoff over LNG sanctions and the slow pace of Greek-Ukrainian defence cooperation exemplify the tension between EU unity against Russia and the economic self-interest of member states. Greece's reliance on shipping and tourism—over a quarter of its economy—makes it vulnerable, while its fear of Russian hybrid warfare and misinformation, particularly ahead of elections, constrains deeper military involvement. The fragmentation risks undermining the sanctions regime and slowing the delivery of advanced capabilities like maritime drones to Ukraine.

Watch For

The EU's effort this week to revise the sanctions package to break the impasse. Any formalisation of the Greece-Ukraine intergovernmental agreement or concrete steps on the drone manufacturing deal. Russia's potential hybrid actions against Greece, including cyberattacks or disinformation ahead of the Greek election between autumn 2025 and early 2027. Updated aid disbursement figures from Greece following the reconstruction memo.