Balochistan’s dangerous fuel trade is a lifeline. The Iran war is choking it

What Happened

The informal fuel trade between Iran and Pakistan, centered at the Kuntani Hor creek on the Makran coast, has collapsed due to the ongoing conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States. Following the initiation of hostilities on 28 February 2025 and subsequent exchanges involving strikes on Iranian ports, coastal defenses, and shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz, the supply of Iranian petrol and diesel to Pakistan has been severely disrupted. By May 2025, the closure of border crossings and the cessation of fuel boat operations led to a 30 to 40 Pakistani rupee increase per litre of Iranian petrol in Gwadar, forcing thousands of laborers and depot operators to abandon the region.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The disruption of the Kuntani Hor fuel trade illustrates the far-reaching economic consequences of the Iran-Israel-US conflict on peripheral regions. For thousands of workers from across Pakistan, this informal economy served as a critical survival mechanism in the absence of domestic employment opportunities. The collapse of this trade route highlights how regional military escalations can destabilize local livelihoods and exacerbate economic insecurity in neighboring countries.

Watch For

Monitor for any potential resumption of maritime fuel transport at the Kuntani Hor creek, which would serve as an indicator of de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or a stabilization of Iranian coastal logistics. Additionally, observe the socioeconomic impact on the Makran coast and the potential for increased labor migration or unrest in Pakistani provinces as workers remain displaced from their primary source of income.