As Ukraine seizes ‘first chance to win’, war horrors come home to Russia

What Happened

In late April 2024, Ukrainian drones attacked Yekaterinburg, an administrative capital over 1,800km from Ukraine's border, targeting a plant producing air defence system components. Yekaterinburg airport has since been shut down at least five times, according to the report. Russian civilians in Yekaterinburg stated to Al Jazeera that they are panic-buying food, facing shop closures and petrol shortages due to Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and fuel storage sites. A 45-year-old small business owner named Anatoly said, 'Prices are growing, shops are closing down, there are lines at gas stations, and they don’t pour the gas in canisters.' He added that his circle has always been against the war and felt the strikes were 'deserved.' In Moscow, a copywriter named Arseny relocated to a country house in the Yaroslav region but still hears drones and loud blasts. The article also reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia is ready for peace talks based on the 2022 Istanbul agreements, though observers claim he seeks to buy time. Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University said, 'For the first time since the autumn of 2022 Ukraine has a chance to win the war,' and warned that if the rear collapse continues, 'the Russian army will simply have to retreat.' Pro-Kremlin analyst Sergey Markov outlined Moscow's demands: 'de-Nazification,' demilitarisation, neutrality, protection of the Russian language, no nuclear weapons, withdrawal from Donbas, recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, and a treaty signed by a 'legitimate' Ukrainian leader.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The Ukrainian ability to strike targets over 1,800km from its border demonstrates a significant expansion of its deep‑strike capability, bringing the war’s direct effects to previously safe Russian regions and eroding Putin’s narrative of domestic security. The resulting economic strain and public unease threaten to undermine the Kremlin’s ability to sustain the war effort, even as the Russian army’s advance in Donbas remains glacial. For the first time, analysts suggest a Ukrainian victory is conceivable if the Russian rear continues to deteriorate, marking a potential turning point in the conflict.

Watch For

Whether Putin’s peace‑talk overture leads to any formal diplomatic track or remains a tactic to buy time. The pace and scope of Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure and the Kremlin’s domestic response—including possible further airport closures, rationing, or public unrest. Any Ukrainian offensive operations that could capitalise on Russian logistical weakness, and the evolution of the Kursk axis where Ukrainian forces have held Russian territory since August 2024.