As Sudan’s war crosses borders and millions are made refugees, could Ethiopia’s plan solve ‘humanity’s migration issue’?

What Happened

Reports indicate that the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have established a clandestine training camp at an Ethiopian military base near the town of Asosa, located approximately 10 miles from the Ura refugee camp. Sudanese refugees residing in Ura have reported that RSF personnel are operating in the vicinity, raising concerns regarding the safety of displaced individuals who fled the ongoing conflict in Sudan. While the Ethiopian government recently launched the 'Makatet' initiative to integrate its 1.1 million refugees into the local economy, the presence of the RSF base has generated fears of targeted reprisals and the potential for the Sudanese conflict to destabilise the border region.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The presence of an RSF training facility within Ethiopia suggests a potential expansion of the Sudanese civil war into neighbouring territory, threatening to draw Ethiopia deeper into regional instability. This development complicates Ethiopia's domestic security landscape, which is already strained by internal tensions, and creates a significant protection risk for the large population of Sudanese refugees currently hosted in the country.

Watch For

Monitor for further evidence regarding the scale and operational status of the RSF camp near Asosa, as well as any diplomatic responses from the Sudanese military or regional actors. Additionally, observe whether the 'Makatet' initiative successfully mitigates the vulnerability of refugees in border areas or if security conditions force a shift in Ethiopia's refugee policy.