As Lebanon tests US-Iran deal, Trump must rein in Netanyahu, analysts say

What Happened

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump publicly urged a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, after signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran that calls for the 'permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon'. However, the Israeli military continued deadly strikes and ground advances in Lebanon, vowing to retain nearly 20 percent of the country’s territory. Iran has linked the Lebanon front to any final deal, and on Friday, US–Iran technical talks were postponed after overnight Israeli attacks killed dozens. Israeli officials claimed another ceasefire was agreed, but Israel's attacks persisted. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said President Masoud Pezeshkian had assured him of safeguarding the rights of 'the resistance front' in talks with the US.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The impasse over Lebanon threatens to derail US-Iran diplomacy, as Iran insists on a cessation of Israeli operations in Lebanon before finalizing a broader ceasefire. The conflict tests whether the Trump administration can or will restrain its ally Israel, and whether a regional deal can hold without Lebanese compliance. A collapse could reignite direct Iran-Israel conflict and destabilize the region further.

Watch For

Monitor whether Israel halts operations in Lebanon following US pressure; watch for rescheduling of US-Iran technical talks; any new ceasefire announcements or statements from Tehran, Washington, or Tel Aviv regarding the Lebanon front. Also pay attention to the position of the Lebanese government and Hezbollah in any direct talks with Israel.