Three times as many Americans expect Iran war to destabilize, bring chaos to Middle East - poll

What Happened

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted over six days and concluding on Monday, finds that 50% of US adults believe the five-month-old US war with Iran will destabilize the Middle East, compared to 17% who think it will bring more stability. The war, launched by President Donald Trump and Israel in late February, has cost US taxpayers at least $37.5 billion and killed 18 US service members and thousands of Iranians. Only 35% of respondents approve of the conflict, and 58% expect gasoline prices—already rising due to Iranian disruption of the Strait of Hormuz—to worsen. The poll also shows voters now narrowly favor Democrats over Republicans (37% to 36%) on handling war and terrorism, and see Democrats as better able to manage the economy for the first time in a decade. The article notes that Iranian missile and drone attacks have targeted neighboring countries and commercial shipping, and that Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have threatened Saudi shipping via the Bab al-Mandab strait.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The poll reveals deep American pessimism about the war's trajectory and its economic and regional costs, which could carry significant political risks for President Trump and Republicans ahead of November's midterm elections. The conflict has not only failed to deliver the promised swift victory but has instead contributed to rising gasoline prices, broader Middle Eastern instability, and a resurgence of proxy attacks. The shift in public opinion—with Democrats now holding a slim advantage on national security and the economy—signals a potential electoral vulnerability for the incumbent party, especially as the war's human and financial tolls mount.

Watch For

Monitor the upcoming US midterm elections in November for possible electoral fallout from the war’s unpopularity. Watch for continued Iranian or proxy attacks on shipping and regional targets, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, which could further drive up global oil prices. Pay attention to any diplomatic initiatives or escalatory moves by the Trump administration, as well as IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear activities amid the ongoing hostilities. Also track public opinion polls and economic indicators like gasoline prices as the conflict persists.