How fresh fighting in Tigray could spark wider conflict in Ethiopia

What Happened

Major clashes erupted this week between Tigrayan regional forces and Ethiopian federal forces in Tigray, spreading into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) claimed it was responding to a federal offensive that included drone strikes; the federal government claimed Tigrayan forces attacked first after seizing control of airports in Tigray. Internet and call services were disrupted, causing panic buying and cutting access to digital money apps in a largely cashless society. The escalation follows more than six months of worsening relations and troop mobilisations between the TPLF-led Tigray administration and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government after unresolved issues from the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, including western Tigray's status, disarmament, and control of Tigray's interim administration.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

The renewed fighting risks reigniting a war that an African Union mediator estimated killed some 600,000 people and drove Tigray to the precipice of famine. The TPLF's new alliance with Amhara Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army, while fragile, broadens the anti-government front across Ethiopia's major regions. Ethiopia's worsening relations with Eritrea over Red Sea access—including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's push for ownership of Assab—add a regional dimension that could draw in another state.

Watch For

Monitor whether the federal offensive expands beyond Tigray into Afar and Amhara, and whether the reported seizure of Tigray's airports alters the military balance. Watch for restoration of communications, formal AU or international mediation, progress on western Tigray referendum or disarmament, and any split in the Alliance for Survival. Also watch Eritrea's response to accusations and any movement toward Assab.