After Pretoria peace deal, old enemies in Ethiopia’s Tigray find new ground

NEWS SUMMARY

Since the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, the TPLF has reportedly engaged in renewed recruitment and mobilization in Tigray, challenging the accord's provisions against conscription and military preparations. These developments, alongside internal political struggles within the TPLF, suggest the underlying conflict remains unresolved, potentially positioning the group for future engagement rather than complete demobilization.

Full BriefGenerated 17d ago

What Happened

Since 2024, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has engaged in political and military repositioning, challenging the disarmament provisions of the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement. In May 2026, the TPLF-aligned regional council elected Debretsion Gebremichael as president, following the removal of Getachew Reda from the interim administration. Militarily, TDF-aligned forces reportedly seized control of Alamata and Korem after federal command posts withdrew, and engaged in clashes with Ethiopian federal forces in the Tselemt district and near the Sudanese border in August 2026. Reports of renewed recruitment and forced mobilisation in Tigray have emerged, which would constitute a breach of Article 7 of the Pretoria Agreement.

Key Actors

·
TPLF(Tigrayan political and military organization)The group has consolidated internal leadership under Debretsion Gebremichael and is accused of violating disarmament terms through renewed mobilization and territorial expansion.
·
ENDF(Ethiopian federal military)The force has engaged in clashes with TDF-aligned troops in disputed districts and maintains a standoff with the TPLF over the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement.
·
Tsimdo(Loose coalition of anti-federal armed groups)The group, which includes the TPLF, Fano, and the Oromo Liberation Army, has formed to coordinate opposition against the federal government of Ethiopia.
·
Eritrea(Regional state actor)The government has reportedly engaged in contacts with TPLF elements, leading to accusations from the Ethiopian federal government of proxy support.

Why It Matters

The resurgence of military activity and the formation of the Tsimdo coalition suggest that the Pretoria Agreement has failed to achieve a durable political settlement. The breakdown of the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) process, combined with the TPLF's political consolidation and new alliances with groups like Fano and the OLA, indicates a significant risk of renewed large-scale conflict that could destabilize the broader Horn of Africa region.

Watch For

Monitor for further military escalations in the disputed Tselemt and western Tigray regions, as well as any formalization of the Tsimdo coalition's operational capabilities. Additionally, watch for potential diplomatic fallout between Addis Ababa and Asmara regarding reported contacts between Eritrean officials and the TPLF.

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This page aggregates and summarizes reporting from Al Jazeera. The Conflict Pulse does not author original reporting. Read the original source for full coverage.

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CONFLICT OVERVIEW

Ethiopia / Tigray

Latest verified updates on Ethiopia’s Tigray crisis, Amhara and Oromia insurgencies, federal tensions, humanitarian conditions, and Horn of Africa risks.

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