Palestinians brace as Israeli settler figures in coalition seek to cement West Bank gains before election

What Happened

On the night of 22 May 2025, settlers from the Maoz Tzur outpost raided the Karajeh family farm in Ein Arik, West Bank, slicing irrigation pipes, cutting grape vines, and uprooting 70 young olive trees. The attack is part of an accelerating campaign of settler aggression driven by Israeli politics ahead of elections due by October. The Maoz Tzur outpost, recently recognised as an official settlement by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has expanded its control, preventing Palestinian access to olive groves and attacking those who venture near. A report by Kerem Navot and Peace Now released on 26 May states that farm outposts now control over 1 million dunams (100,000 hectares), 18% of the West Bank, with nearly a third of that seizure occurring in 2025 alone. The report attributes the surge to government policies that have advanced de facto annexation through structural changes, retroactive authorisation of outposts, and a systematic pattern of violence intended to expel Palestinians and seize land.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

This pre-election surge in settler violence and land seizure represents an accelerated de facto annexation of the West Bank, entrenching facts on the ground that erode the viability of a two-state solution and deepen Palestinian displacement. The involvement of senior ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir institutionalises the takeover, while the timing—just before possible electoral defeat—raises the stakes: a change in government could either reverse or solidify these gains, potentially triggering further conflict or international legal actions.

Watch For

Monitor Israeli election developments and whether a new coalition halts or reverses Smotrich’s settlement approvals. Any intensification of violence or new outpost creations before the vote. Watch for Palestinian resistance or legal challenges, as well as international reactions, including from the U.S. and European states, and the potential for UN Security Council discussions or referrals to international courts based on the Kerem Navot/Peace Now documentation.