Ahmadinejad's appearance at Khamenei's funeral leaves unanswered questions - analysis

What Happened

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was seen in public for the first time since February 28 at the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Monday, according to Al-Ain media. Ahmadinejad had not appeared since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on that date, with conflicting reports about his fate—including speculation he might have been killed or that the strikes were intended to free him from house arrest for a potential role in regime change. Iranian state media published an image of Ahmadinejad moving among mourners with bodyguards, wearing a jacket and a mask pulled to his throat. Notably, other living former presidents, Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, were absent from the ceremony, with critics saying they had not been invited. Khamenei's funeral is a week-long event: after Tehran, the body was taken to Qom, then to the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala on Tuesday, before returning to Iran for burial in Mashhad on the ninth of the month. The war, which began on February 28, reportedly killed a large number of Iranian political and military leaders, including Khamenei. The new Supreme Leader, his son, is reported wounded and in hiding, and the IRGC is described as moving the country toward military dictatorship.

Key Actors

Why It Matters

Ahmadinejad, a former hardline president strongly associated with Iran's nuclear ambitions and anti-Israel rhetoric, resurfacing during the leadership vacuum after Khamenei's death could indicate internal factional moves or external interest in shaping a post-war order. His absence since the February 28 strikes and the unconfirmed reports of a possible Western-backed role for him add to speculation about regime change. With the IRGC ascendant and other former presidents sidelined, his appearance may signal a potential alternative power center or a bid for relevance amid Iran's political transformation.

Watch For

Monitor any official statements or roles granted to Ahmadinejad in the coming days, reactions from the IRGC and the new Supreme Leader's camp, and the tone of Iranian state media toward him. The burial of Khamenei in Mashhad on the ninth of the month may provide further signals of elite alignment. Also watch for any US or Israeli commentary on the unfolding succession.